Who is Donald Trump?
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
https://www.quora.com/profile/Charlie-Brown-435
Politics has a way of turning everything upside down.
Flit
over to Twitter and the same government media echo chamber that was
loudly defending the Iran deal is concern trolling about strong
inspections of North Korea’s nuclear program and worrying that President
Trump’s suspension of military exercises is far too great of a
concession to the tiny tyrant.
The
clever ones ask, “What’s the difference between the Iran deal and the
North Korean negotiations”? Isn’t Trump’s stated willingness to meet
with dictators a lot like Obama’s no preconditions pledge?
And then there are the trade wars. What is he thinking by upsetting the Chinese and the Europeans?
It’s
2018. And after spilling several small rivers of black ink (digital and
virtual) analyzing, smearing, belaboring, insulting and fact checking
President Trump, the media still doesn’t understand him.
That’s
not surprising. The media has been writing about America for much
longer than that and has even less of a clue about how people live
outside its preciously hip urban and suburban bubbles.
But
there are 5 simple rules for understanding President Trump. They define
how he’s lived his life until now. And what still drives him at 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue. If you understand them, you will get what he’s
doing. If you don’t, there’s always a job waiting at the New York Times.
1. Act, Don’t React
Trump
hates reacting, he loves taking the initiative and forcing others,
rivals, competitors, media syndicates or foreign dictators, to react to
him. That’s the essence of strategy and he nails it the way few have.
When UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson muttered that there was a “method to his madness”, that was it.
The
method is becoming the driving force in an escalating conflict. Instead
of reacting to attacks, Trump forces his attackers to react to him. He
takes the initiative and leaves his opponents sputtering.
That’s how he became the President of the United States. It’s what he’s doing internationally.
By
acting, Trump takes control of each encounter. What happens next may
not be ideal, but Trump cares more about maintaining the initiative than
about forcing a specific outcome. He doesn’t see politics as a chess
match, but as a boxing match. He doesn’t get locked into predetermined
goals. Instead he lets the kinetic confrontation create opportunities by
exploiting his opponent’s reactions.
Picking
a fight with the North Korean dictator, led to a peace summit. A trade
war with China has already led to some serious concessions. A trade
shoving match with Europe and Canada offers potential wins.
Unlike previous administrations, Trump isn’t satisfied with the status quo. And that means that he tries a lot of things.
That takes us to Rule 2.
2. Try Everything
Critics have poked fun at Trump’s failed business ventures. But you don’t succeed without trying and failing.
Trump
is comfortable with failure. He knows that if you’re willing to knock
on 100 doors, you might get 1 sale. His approach to politics is trying a
lot of different approaches and policies to get to a win.
When
Obama expressed a willingness to meet with dictators and terrorists,
it’s because he was already sympathetic to them. The seeds of the Iran
deal were always in him. The negotiations just took him where he already
wanted to be. Trump however isn’t meeting with Kim Jong-un because he
likes him. He’s doing it because it might pay off. Or it won’t and then
he’ll try something else.
Obama
needed Iran. Trump doesn’t need North Korea. He can take it or leave
it. He’s hungry for wins, but he also sees the potential for them
everywhere so he doesn’t over commit to any individual deal.
Political
professionals scoff at that scrappy attitude. They insist on the
importance of posture and position. Trump knows all about posture and
position, but he refuses to be its prisoner. He can insult Kim one day
and flatter him the next. Politics is just business with countries
instead of companies.
Trump’s
approach is the same to both politics and business. Do whatever it
takes to get the deal. And then decide if the deal is worth taking.
3. Chaos is Power
Most
people want to minimize chaos. Countries and companies spend fortunes,
fight wars and dedicate decades to reducing chaos. Trump however thrives
on chaos. Instead of trying to control chaos, he generates it, causing
uncertainty and then offering a sense of security in exchange for a good
deal.
That’s what Trump is doing with trade. It’s what he did to China and North Korea.
Trump
tries everything (Rule 2) and escalates confrontations (Rule 1) so that
his opponents have no way to counter him except by escalating the
confrontation and creating more chaos. And then Trump forces them to
negotiate by proving he can function in a chaotic and uncertain
situation better than they can.
That’s
how he got North Korea to the table. After decades of the Norks
intimidating previous administrations by creating chaos with their
threats, Trump topped those threats. The media warned that a nuclear war
would break out. Instead China and North Korea chose a peace summit.
The summit may come to nothing, but Trump had already broken the Nork ability to intimidate us.
China,
Europe and Canada don’t want a trade war. They have nothing to gain and
plenty to lose. By creating economic chaos, Trump also became the only
man who can end the chaos and restore security.
Chaos is power.
When
the United States became a world power, its administrations emphasized
stability over everything. Trump welcomes chaos because it’s a much more
effective negotiating strategy. Entities that seek order can be
intimidated with chaos. But politicians who seek chaos can’t be
intimidated.
Trump doesn’t seek order. He wants victory.
4. Never Show Your Hand
Conventional
politicians have a narrow window of agenda items. They’re very clear on
what they want, what they don’t want, what they’re willing to do and
what they’re willing to give up to get it.
Trump
has always been ambiguous. Parse his sentences and you can read them
three different ways. Each assertion eventually uncovers a
contradiction. That’s confusion. Tactical confusion.
As Trump has mentioned plenty of times, he loves being unpredictable.
Trump
is the only president in a century who is able to go into negotiations
with a completely unpredictable outcome. And the roster of competing
figures around him only creates more chaos.
To
truly create chaos (Rule 3), you have to be unpredictable. That creates
insecurity. It forces your opponents to read things into every move you
make. And then to be stymied by the futility of it.
Ambiguity
leaves the other side unable to assess what the United States would
actually settle for. Instead it ends up offering far more than we would
settle for just to restore that sense of security.
Trump is the most famous man in the world. And yet his decision-making remains mysterious.
5. Don’t Be Afraid to be the Bad Guy
If
Americans have a fatal flaw, a weakness that undermines our domestic
and international politics, it’s a need to be liked. Most other
countries don’t wonder whether the rest of the world likes them.
Blame
Hollywood, dime novels or comic books, but as Americans we see
ourselves as the heroes. And our enemies, foreign and domestic, know
that they can break us by making us question our goodness.
It’s how they did it in Vietnam, in Iraq and too many foreign policy debates to count.
One
of Trump’s great strengths is that he’s not afraid to be the bully, the
heavy and the jerk. He can flatter Kim Jong-un, Trudeau and any other
leader. Or call them names.
He can say shocking things and take unacceptable positions if it gets him what he wants.
That’s
the attribute that upsets and infuriates Never Trumpers'. But it also
gives the United States far more negotiating leverage and freedom than
it ever had before. And that’s why the people chose him.
Trump embodied all the things that had been going unsaid and all the truths that needed telling.
Past
presidents valued their personal relationships with foreign leaders.
But Trump is willing to throw a punch at the boy band leader of Canada
if it gets a farmer in Wisconsin a better deal for his dairy.
On
the global stage, President Trump has forced North Korea, China, Europe
and Canada to react to him. He’s trying everything. He’s creating
chaos. He’s hiding his hand and he’s winning.
The
media shouts that Trump is isolated. If he were isolated, the world
wouldn’t be revolving around him. The world doesn’t stop when Putin or
China’s Jinping issue a statement. But a single Trump tweet can upend
the priorities of international diplomacy for days, weeks and even
months.
Trump isn’t reacting to the world. The world is reacting to him.
And as long as he can keep the world reacting to him, he’s the one setting the agenda for the world.
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Comments
Post a Comment